Strategic enrollment planning and demographic changes in high school graduates

Demographic trends show that nearly 40 states will experience significant declines in the number of high school graduates in the coming years. Specifically, declines in Caucasian and Asian students—the two ethnic groups that attend colleges at the highest rates—will undergo a significant decline. This development means colleges and universities will face growing enrollment management challenges in the coming years.

The following map illustrates how widespread these declines will reach, and how the Midwest and Northeastern United States in particular will experience significant losses of high school graduates:

These developments are detailed in our latest white paper, Strategic Enrollment Planning for the Coming Demographic Change. In addition to examining overall high school demographic changes, the papers discusses the college enrollment impact of:

• Changes in high school graduation rates
• Student migration patterns
• The fluctuating state of the U.S. economy

The paper also includes additional key demographic projections such as:

• Changes in the age of students at degree-granting institutions
• State-by-state changes in the overall number of high school graduates in the next decade
• State-by-state changes in the number of white, Asian, and Hispanic graduates during the same period

Simply put, colleges and universities are going to be facing greater competition for a smaller number of high school graduates. We present a number of general recommendations for campuses to deal with this rather sweeping changes. But the bottom line is that, to successfully cope with these coming developments, it is imperative for campuses to take action now so they can connect their missions and capabilities to their long-term enrollment and fiscal health.