“Bigger or better” revisited: applicants vs. yield

Based on research by Shari Gnolek of Scannell & Kurz

NACAC’s latest State of College Admission Report  noted the continuing trend of declining yield rates in college admissions.  This trend goes on just as many colleges continue to see increases in application numbers.  In 2013, we published a chart showing changes in application numbers relative to changes in yield, noting that institutions that increased applications were three times more likely to see a decline in yield than to see an increase in yield.

We recently updated these statistics from the Integrated Postsecondary Educations Data System (IPEDS) to show changes from 2012 to 2013.  The latest data reflect a pattern similar to last year’s, showing that schools that experienced an increase in applications from 2012 to 2013 were 2.3 times more likely to see a decline in yield than an increase in yield.

In the chart below, the lower right quadrant displays schools with an increase in the applicant pool from 2012 to 2013 and a decrease in yield.  It is of course possible that these schools may still have managed to enroll a larger freshman class than the year before. However, as we noted last year, a full cost/benefit analysis may show that, factoring in all of the expenses of a larger applicant pool, bigger may not necessarily be better. Wherever new applications are coming from, the key in planning for an increased pool is to understand how the yield from the new source of applicants will differ from what you’re used to seeing.

The latest IPEDS data are shown above, based on 872 public and private four-year institutions with 1,000 or more enrolled undergraduates and at least 1,000 applicants in 2013. (Note: separate analyses of public and private institutions show similar patterns, though the risk of decreased yield was slightly higher for publics.)

Where should your campus be to sustain long-term enrollment growth?

The ideal position for campuses is the top right quadrant, where campuses have more applicants and increased yield. While the top left position (fewer applicants/more yield) can be a short-term positive development for a campus, the more applicants/more yield position provides the necessary elements to sustain ongoing enrollment growth.

Notice, however, that this ideal quadrant contains the fewest number of campuses, and that the largest quadrant contains campuses generating more applications but seeing decreases in yield rates. This shows that simply pushing for more applications is not enough. The key is to strategically cultivate applications, to find students who are a good fit and are more likely to enroll. In fact, it is better to think about the applicants your campus wants to increase, rather than simply focusing on increasing applications. Is your campus pursuing and engaging students who are a good fit for your institution? That is what will help drive more students who are more likely to enroll and increase your yield rates.

All of this points to the importance of advanced recruitment planning. Campuses have many tools that they can use to identify students who are the best fit and develop data-informed recruitment plans. Committing to a higher level of recruitment planning is what will separate successful schools generating more applications and increasing yield from those institutions seeing diminishing returns on their enrollment investment.

How can you start down the road to increasing applicants and yield rates? I would be happy to discuss it with you. Send me an email if you’d like to talk about the enrollment challenges you’re facing, and let my colleagues and I see if we can provide some thoughts on potential strategies.