5 Graduate Education Trends to Watch in 2025

The outlook for graduate education in 2025 is strong. I always look forward to fall because so many of the trend reports that I rely on to get a sense of “what’s next” are released. Whether it is the new IPEDS data, the latest from National Student Clearinghouse, the IIE Open Doors report on international students, or others, I spend time thinking through what the most important data mean for institutions. I also keep an eye on the analogous undergraduate trends to see if graduate (and/or online) education will be called upon to shore of institutional health even more than it has over the last few years.

1. Undergraduate enrollment did well

Before we address graduate trends, let’s talk about the preliminary Fall 2024 undergraduate data recently released by National Student Clearinghouse (NSC). While first-year student enrollment contracted by 5 percent overall (and as much as 8.5 at some types of institutions), overall undergraduate enrollment grew by 3 percent. While the first-year numbers present serious challenges for institutions, these numbers do not put any immediate additional pressure on graduate programs to grow for the sake of institutional health. I have some concern that institutions will attribute all or most of the first-year contraction to the FAFSA fiasco, while at least some contraction will have been driven by the Demographic Cliff barreling toward us. I am also concerned that the overall positive data may provide some institutions (particularly those with an historic focus on traditional undergraduates) a false sense of security that results in lessening the urgency of growing robust, market-driven graduate offerings.

2. Graduate enrollment had a good year

Back in 2022, National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) reported that graduate enrollment contracted by .9 percent. I thought that the graduate market was recalibrating to pre-pandemic rates of growth – which hovered at about 1 percent for several years before the pandemic boom. Then in 2023 that contraction was nearly erased with .7 percent growth. So, what would we see in 2024? In my wildest dreams I didn’t expect 2.1 percent growth with our booming economy (which typically results in fewer students enrolling) and the increased marketing costs associated with the election. But here’s the thing: this is not a case of “a rising tide will lift all boats.” The trends that follow make clear that international students, online students, and students seeking new areas of study will continue to play a critical role in the success of some institutions—and the lack thereof among others.

3. Many institutions are over-relying on international students

The IIE Open Doors 2024 report indicates that more international students than ever before (more than 500,000) enrolled in graduate programs last year. They now represent about 1 in 6 graduate students. Why am I concerned? First, if we can compare these data with the NSC data (see #2), more than half of YoY grad growth may have been driven by international students in Fall 2024. My second observation makes my concern clear: the last extended decline in international enrollment began four years before the pandemic began. With our political situation repeating itself, it is highly likely that at least some citizens of the world may again find the U.S. a less interesting place in which to enroll. What is the answer to this? Institutions must be sure they understand how to attract domestic students to their programs. If your international cohort comprises more than about 15 percent of your graduate enrollment, get to work.

4. Online options are critical to success

While we continue to wait for full details of the 2023 IPEDS data set, we DO have access to completions data by format of study. These data indicate that when there is a fully online option, program degree production is far-exceeding classroom-only degree production. In fact, at the master’s level, this was the third year in a row when more degrees were conferred among online-available programs than classroom-only programs. This is not a small thing. Such programs produced nearly 125,000 more master’s degrees than did classroom-only programs. Institutions don’t have to discontinue their classroom offerings (in fact classroom-only programs DID see YoYgrowth), but they should ensure their growth strategy is centered on their online offerings. This is especially true if we see a contraction of international graduate enrollment given that the vast majority of international students enroll in classroom-only programs. Imagine the impact on classroom enrollment if this source of students begins to dry up (again).

5. There is no such thing as “tried and true” graduate programs

We used the IPEDS degree production data to see which master’s programs 1) produce the largest numbers of degrees, and 2) grew the most over the last years (2019-2023). Critically important patterns emerged. By volume, over the last five years three programs dropped of the list of the 15 largest program areas (Public Administration, Electrical Engineering, and Counselor Education) while three were added (Management Science, Management Science and Quantitative Methods, and Health Care Administration). In both 2019 and 2023, Business Administration, Educational Administration, Accounting, and Education were among the biggest degree producers. But here’s the problem: all four of these programs are ALSO among the degree areas experiencing the most profound contraction in degree production (see the right hand table below.) On the growth side, Management Science, Management Science and Quantitative Methods (both CIPS commonly used to report Business Analytics programs) and Health Care Administration (all newly arrived on the list of the largest program areas) got there in less than the full five-year period. These degree areas were not even on the radar in 2019.

Action items

There are myriad and diverse uses and applications of these data trends, each unique to the institution using them to chart their course, but there are also a few universals that institutions should be considering as they make graduate level strategic decisions. These include:

1. Understand the demands, preferences, and expectations of your domestic (and by that I also mean local) market. Once you know what they need, what they expect, and how they prefer it to be delivered, align your programs and practices in order to ensure that people in need of graduate study in your region or community select you rather than some other institution.
2. Have contingency plan in place to make up for declines in international enrollment. If the international student market dries up, there is little else to do than to seek to fill your gaps with domestic students. But they have more “choice” than ever before, so you will have to “make your case.” Do market research, make plans, and be sure to realize that domestic student needs, their interests, and their motivations are very different from their international counterparts.
3. Ensure that your growth strategy is focused on your online (and partially online) programs. Scan regional data to see which graduate programs are driving growth in your region, and note how many of those programs you offer, and how many you have available in a fully online format. If you do not have at a 2:1 ratio with your classroom programs, it is likely that you will not be able to sustain growth in the next several years. If you do not offer online graduate programs, you should begin to prepare your leadership for sustained contraction at the graduate level.
4. Be sure that your program mix is dynamic, and that you have processes in place to quickly launch new programs (and shutter out-of-date programs). The fact that three of the programs both generating the greatest numbers of enrollments AND seeing the greatest five-year growth didn’t even register on the lists five years ago is an indicator of just how fast student interests are changing today. Be sure that your new program approval process takes no longer than one year from program concept to launch and be sure to include adequate resources in each program business plan for at least three year’s of generous marketing spend. Finally, assume that it will take 2-2.5 years for new programs to “break even”.
5. Ensure that graduate marketing, recruitment, enrollment, and retention, are getting the same level of attention as are your undergraduate processes. When graduate (or online) education was the “extra” thing you offered for incremental revenue, it made sense for institutions to not distract the institutional marketing, recruitment, and admissions offices from their work of filling up undergrad classes. Today, graduate (and online) are critical to enrollment health. As such be sure you have the expertise and are dedicating the resources to ensure that you are “delivering” the very best experiences to your graduate students from first contact to last day of classes.